<\/p>\n\n\n\n
C\u00e1c k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u0169 kh\u00ed nguy\u00ean t\u1eed c\u1ee7a Iran kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111em ra th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn khi n\u00e0o ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o c\u00f2n t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
C\u01a1 Quan N\u0103ng L\u01b0\u1ee3ng Nguy\u00ean T\u1eed Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf (International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA) \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh r\u1eb1ng: \u201cT\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2025, Iran s\u1edf h\u1eefu 408,6 kg uranium hexafluoride (UF6) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tinh ch\u1ebf t\u1edbi m\u1ee9c 60% uranium-235 (\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 uranium tinh ch\u1ebf cao, hay HEU)) C\u0169ng theo b\u1ea3n tin n\u00e0y: \u201cM\u1ed9t chu\u1ed7i \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n g\u1ed3m kho\u1ea3ng 200 m\u00e1y ly t\u00e2m IR-6 c\u1ee7a Iran s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 tinh ch\u1ebf 50 kg uranium\u2014l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ee7 cho kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t qu\u1ea3 bom h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n\u2014t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 60% (HEU) l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 90% (c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 v\u0169 kh\u00ed) ch\u1ec9 trong kho\u1ea3ng 10 ng\u00e0y. Kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian n\u00e0y th\u1eadm ch\u00ed s\u1ebd c\u00f2n ng\u1eafn h\u01a1n n\u1ebfu Iran s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00e1y ly t\u00e2m IR-9 ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.\u201d (Fran\u00e7ois Diaz-Maurin , The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 29, 2026).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd h\u1ecfi ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, t\u1ea1i sao Do Th\u00e1i, Pakistan, B\u1eafc H\u00e0n, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, M\u1ef9, Anh, Ph\u00e1p, Nga, Trung C\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 v\u0169 kh\u00ed nguy\u00ean t\u1eed nh\u01b0ng Iran l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f3?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ch\u00edn qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1edf h\u1eefu v\u0169 khi nguy\u00ean t\u1eed k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 B\u1eafc H\u00e0n \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7t n\u1eb7ng m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7. Iran th\u00ec kh\u00e1c. Nguy\u00ean t\u1eed c\u1ee7a Iran l\u00e0 ch\u1ed7 d\u1ef1a an to\u00e0n cho ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0 b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n. L\u1ecbch s\u1eed ra \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o t\u1eeb 1979 \u0111\u1ebfn nay \u0111\u00e3 v\u00e0 \u0111ang ch\u1ee9ng minh \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 qua vi\u1ec7c Iran t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m tri\u1ec7u dollar cho c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1 Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Iraqi Shiite t\u1ea1i Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u n\u01a1i tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. (US State Department, Bureau Of Counterterrorism, Country Reports on Terrorism 2021)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
H\u00e3y h\u00ecnh dung Iran \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trang b\u1ecb b\u1eb1ng 60 \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea1n nguy\u00ean t\u1eed nh\u01b0 B\u1eafc H\u00e0n (theo \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c Federation of American Scientist), ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn kh\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0o d\u00e1m \u0111\u1ee5ng t\u1edbi Iran d\u00f9 b\u1eb1ng bom xuy\u00ean h\u1ea7m (bunker buster) 30,000 c\u00e2n Anh hay ch\u1ec9 mong Iran ng\u1ed3i xu\u1ed1ng n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
B\u1eafc H\u00e0n l\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u00e0 so s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi Iran v\u00ec c\u1ea3 hai l\u00e0 can ph\u1ea1m t\u1ed9i \u00e1c ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i con ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u01b0\u1ee3t gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n. B\u1eafc H\u00e0n tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd t\u1eeb b\u1ecf v\u00f5 khi nguy\u00ean t\u1eed. (Center for Strategic and International Studies, Critical Questions by Ellen Kim Published September 9, 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nhi\u1ec1u t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Nam H\u00e0n v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 d\u00f9ng c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p t\u1eeb \u201cc\u1ee7 c\u00e0 r\u1ed1t\u201d c\u1ee9u \u0111\u00f3i cho t\u1edbi \u201cc\u00e2y g\u1eady\u201d c\u1ea5m v\u1eadn \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n vi\u1ec7c B\u1eafc H\u00e0n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m v\u0169 kh\u00ed nguy\u00ean t\u1eed nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. L\u00fd do r\u1ea5t \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n, v\u0169 kh\u00ed nguy\u00ean t\u1eed l\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec h\u1ecd Kim c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 chi\u1ebfc ngai quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i tr\u00ean s\u1ed1 ph\u1eadn c\u1ee7a 26.5 tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n B\u1eafc H\u00e0n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran c\u0169ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 n\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trang b\u1ecb v\u0169 kh\u00ed nguy\u00ean t\u1eed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
S\u1edf h\u1eefu bom nguy\u00ean t\u1eed v\u1edbi b\u1eafc H\u00e0n v\u00e0 Iran ch\u1eb3ng kh\u00e1c g\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00edch m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i thu\u1ed1c mi\u1ec5n d\u1ecbch c\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u nh\u1ea5t, kh\u00f4ng vi khu\u1ea9n n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp. M\u1ed9t Iran H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n nguy\u00ean t\u1eed s\u1ebd g\u00e2y tai h\u1ecda cho nh\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i h\u01a1n B\u1eafc H\u00e0n trong nhi\u1ec1u l\u00e3nh v\u1ef1c. Kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i Iran mang bom nguy\u00ean t\u1eed \u0111i n\u00e9m n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0o, nh\u01b0ng nguy\u00ean t\u1eed s\u1ebd l\u00e0 l\u00e1 ch\u1eafn cho c\u00e1c t\u1ed9i \u00e1c m\u00e0 h\u1ecd g\u00e2y ra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u0103m s\u00e1ch l\u01b0\u1ee3c Khomeini v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Iran \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng t\u1eeb 1979 \u0111\u1ebfn nay g\u1ed3m (1) d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng (2) x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc chuy\u00ean ch\u00ednh, (3) kh\u00f4ng ng\u1eebng c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 b\u1ed9 m\u00e1y tuy\u00ean truy\u1ec1n, (4)\u00a0 tr\u1ea5n \u00e1p \u00a0kh\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ebfc c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n ch\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u00a0v\u00e0 (5) xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng sang n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran l\u00e0 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 duy nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi pha tr\u1ed9n gi\u1eefa c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n thi\u00eang li\u00eang v\u00e0 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf C\u1ed9ng H\u00f2a. Th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n thi\u00eang li\u00eang t\u1ea1i Iran kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1o ch\u1ee7 Ruhollah Khomeini \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00fac k\u1ebft trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m th\u00e1ng l\u01b0u vong. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trong t\u00e1c ph\u1ea9m \u201cIslamic Government: Governance of the Jurist\u201d \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n 1970, Ruhollah Khomeini cho th\u1ea5y tham v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng ta l\u00e0 l\u00e3nh t\u1ee5 m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n tr\u00ean ph\u1ea1m vi to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Mu\u1ed1n v\u1eady, Khomeini ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3i \u201cxu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng\u201d \u201cc\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o\u201d. N\u1ebfu C\u00e1c M\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng \u201cv\u00f4 s\u1ea3n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111o\u00e0n k\u1ebft l\u1ea1i\u201d th\u00ec Khomeini ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng \u201cH\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111o\u00e0n k\u1ebft l\u1ea1i\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sau khi l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 vua Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, Khomeini khai tri\u1ec3n t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng ta th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t t\u1ea1i Iran, trong \u0111\u00f3 m\u1ecdi l\u00e3nh v\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 m\u1ed7i b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t. Ngay c\u1ea3 Tehran, th\u1ee7 \u0111\u00f4 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a Iran c\u0169ng b\u1ecb ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t \u201cth\u1ee7 \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n\u201d \u0111\u1eb7t t\u1ea1i Qom, c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00f3 146km.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran t\u00ecm m\u1ecdi c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng Khomeini sang c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o v\u00e0 c\u1ea3 kh\u00f4ng H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o kh\u00e1c. Vi\u1ec7c xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n m\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch ghi r\u00f5 trong Hi\u1ebfn Ph\u00e1p 1979: \u201cNh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea5u tranh \u0111\u00f2i quy\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ecb \u00e1p b\u1ee9c ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng k\u1ebb ng\u1ea1o m\u1ea1n \u1edf kh\u1eafp m\u1ecdi n\u01a1i tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.” (\u0110i\u1ec1u 154, Hi\u1ebfn ph\u00e1p Iran 1979)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kh\u00f4ng \u00edt ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 ngh\u0129 sai khi cho r\u1eb1ng Ali Khamenei ch\u1ebft ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i t\u1ea1i Iran c\u0169ng ch\u1ebft theo. Kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00fang. Nhi\u1ec1u cu\u1ed9c bi\u1ec3u t\u00ecnh ngo\u00e0i Iran m\u1eebng c\u00e1i ch\u1ebft c\u1ee7a Ali Khamenei ch\u1ec9 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00e0i h\u00f4m tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi Mojtaba Khamenei \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng Chuy\u00ean Gia Iran b\u1ea7u l\u00e0m l\u00e3nh t\u1ee5 t\u1ed1i cao k\u1ebf v\u1ecb Ali Khamenei. Kh\u00f4ng ai trong ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n Iran n\u1eafm gi\u1eef quy\u1ec1n uy tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i. B\u1ea3n th\u00e2n c\u1ee7a l\u00e3nh t\u1ee5 t\u1ed1i cao kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i cha truy\u1ec1n con n\u1ed1i hay t\u1ef1 ch\u1ecdn ng\u01b0\u1eddi k\u1ebf v\u1ecb nh\u01b0 B\u1eafc H\u00e0n m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng Chuy\u00ean Gia (The Assembly of Experts) b\u1ea7u l\u00ean v\u00e0 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb tru\u1ea5t ph\u1ebf. Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p Mojtaba Khamenei k\u1ebf v\u1ecb cha ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 c\u00e1 bi\u1ec7t. C\u00e1c H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng nh\u01b0 H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng Chuy\u00ean Gia, H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng Gi\u00e1m H\u1ed9, H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng T\u01b0 V\u1ea5n, H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng X\u00e1c \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u1ee3i \u00cdch Qu\u1ed1c Gia v.v\u2026 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1eabn nhau h\u1ebft s\u1ee9c ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c che ch\u1edf b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba h\u00ecnh hi\u1ec3m tr\u1edf nh\u01b0 r\u1eb7ng Zagros \u1edf ph\u00eda t\u00e2y v\u00e0 r\u1eb7ng Alborz ph\u00eda b\u1eafc. \u0110\u1ecba h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Iran gi\u00fap cho n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y kh\u00f3 b\u1ecb x\u00e2m l\u0103ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb bi\u1ec3n, qua n\u00fai hay sa m\u1ea1c. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 b\u1ecb \u0110\u1ed3ng Minh (Anh v\u00e0 Nga) chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng trong Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn Th\u1ee9 Hai, Iran ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd b\u1ecb th\u1ef1c d\u00e2n h\u00f3a nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u00c1 v\u00e0 Phi Ch\u00e2u. Trong chi\u1ebfn tranh Iran-Iraq 1980-1988, Iraq v\u1edbi v\u00f5 kh\u00ed t\u1ed1i t\u00e2n h\u01a1n xa, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, Ph\u00e1p v\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia trong kh\u1ed1i \u00c1 R\u1eadp nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1eafng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sau nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t m\u01b0a bom c\u1ee7a li\u00ean qu\u00e2n M\u1ef9-Do Th\u00e1i, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngh\u0129 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n Iran s\u1ebd s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 nhanh ch\u00f3ng, c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n ch\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1i s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ee9ng l\u00ean gi\u00e0nh l\u1ea5y ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n, ho\u00e0ng th\u00e1i t\u1eed Reza Pahlavi, con trai c\u1ee7a vua Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, s\u1ebd v\u1ec1 n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1eadp ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf cho th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng di\u1ec5n ra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed chi\u1ebfn tranh, n\u00e9m bom \u0111\u1ec3 gia t\u0103ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 bu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u201c\u0111\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng v\u00f4 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n\u201d. \u0110\u1ed3ng minh n\u00e9m bom Berlin li\u00ean t\u1ee5c su\u1ed1t 5 n\u0103m kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m suy chuy\u1ec3n m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch c\u1ee7a Hitler. Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u0169ng v\u1eady. Ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang trong chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch Operation Meetinghouse th\u00f4i, 279 ph\u00e1o \u0111\u00e0i bay B-29 n\u00e9m 1,665 t\u1ea5n bom xu\u1ed1ng Tokyo nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 qu\u00e2n phi\u1ec7t Nh\u1eadt v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0110\u1ed5 qu\u00e2n l\u00e0 ch\u1ecdn l\u1ef1a duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1. Tuy nhi\u00ean vi\u1ec7c M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed5 m\u1ed9t tri\u1ec7u qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng Iran v\u1edbi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 th\u01b0\u01a1ng vong v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn ph\u00ed nh\u01b0 t\u1ea1i Afghanistan v\u00e0 Iraq l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t ra trong l\u00fac n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00cdt ra trong hai cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn Afghanistan v\u00e0 Iraq M\u1ef9 chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u d\u01b0\u1edbi danh ngh\u0129a li\u00ean qu\u00e2n. Ch\u1ed1ng Taliban, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 50 qu\u1ed1c gia, trong v\u00e0 ngo\u00e0i NATO, k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 Iran, tham chi\u1ebfn. Ch\u1ed1ng Saddam Hussein, M\u1ef9 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 t\u1eeb 42 qu\u1ed1c gia. Cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn Afghanistan k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 20 n\u0103m v\u00e0 Iraq k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 8 n\u0103m v\u1edbi t\u1ed5n ph\u00ed kinh ho\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1eeb 4 \u0111\u1ebfn 6 ng\u00e0n t\u1ef7 dollar. Nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh qu\u1ea3 M\u1ef9 \u0111em v\u1ec1 th\u1eadt qu\u00e1 khi\u00eam nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng so v\u1edbi s\u1ee9c ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ed5 ra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trong chi\u1ebfn tranh ch\u1ed1ng Iran hi\u1ec7n nay, M\u1ef9 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 Do Th\u00e1i v\u1edbi qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i 170 ng\u00e0n ng\u01b0\u1eddi. C\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u00c1 R\u1eadp \u0111\u1ed3ng minh v\u1edbi M\u1ef9 nh\u01b0 Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq (ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb do M\u1ef9 g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n d\u1ef1ng n\u00ean) c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ec1u t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i kh\u00f4ng cho M\u1ef9 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5, v\u00f9ng tr\u1eddi v\u00e0 v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Iran. C\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n b\u1ecb l\u00f4i k\u00e9o s\u00e2u v\u00e0o xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9-Do Th\u00e1i v\u00e0 Iran. (Sean Mathews, Gulf states refuse to be launching pad for any US attacks against Iran, Middle East Eye, 1 April 2025)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
T\u1eadn C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh \u0111ang l\u00e0 \u201cng\u01b0 \u00f4ng \u0111\u1eafc l\u1ee3i\u201d trong xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9-Do Th\u00e1i v\u00e0 Iran n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng d\u1ea1i g\u00ec gi\u00fap M\u1ef9 t\u1eadn t\u00ecnh. Xung \u0111\u1ed9t l\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 T\u1eadp t\u1ea1o li\u00ean minh kinh t\u1ebf, ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u1edbi Nga, Iran v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o \u0111ang c\u1ea7n ch\u1ed7 d\u1ef1a c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 khai th\u00e1c c\u00e1c xung \u0111\u1ed9t gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o trong v\u00f9ng. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc T\u00e2y \u00c2u v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh tin c\u1eady c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 c\u00f9ng nghi\u00eang v\u1ec1 TC. Hi\u1ec7n nay, H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o c\u00f3 2 t\u1ec9 ng\u01b0\u1eddi, chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n t\u01b0 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u00e9o b\u1ed5 cho h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a r\u1ebb ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a TC v\u00e0 v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ea5t m\u00eanh m\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec3 TC tuy\u00ean truy\u1ec1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i ti\u00eau th\u1ee5. Ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng s\u1ed1ng b\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng cao \u0111\u1eb9p m\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng ti\u1ec1n ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m d\u00e0nh d\u1ee5m kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n, xe h\u01a1i, x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u, \u0103n u\u1ed1ng, thu\u1ebf m\u00e1 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ti\u1ec7n nghi v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft kh\u00e1c. Ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y kinh t\u1ebf ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nh\u01b0ng ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 g\u00e2y ra c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i g\u00e2y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nhi\u1ec1u ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n M\u1ef9. Kh\u00f4ng \u00edt c\u00e1c t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng ch\u1ec9 t\u1ea1i ch\u1ee9c m\u1ed9t nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 ph\u00e1t xu\u1ea5t t\u1eeb c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n kinh t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 Herbert Hoover (\u0111\u1ea1i suy tho\u00e1i), Jimmy Carter (l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t) George H.W. Bush (l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t) v.v\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ea7y 6 th\u00e1ng n\u1eefa, cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed gi\u1eefa k\u1ef3 (Midterm election 2026) trong \u0111\u00f3 435 gh\u1ebf trong H\u1ea1 Vi\u1ec7n v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n ba gh\u1ebf (35) Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng Vi\u1ec7n s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea7u. Theo US Vote Foundation:\u201cV\u00ec c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed n\u00e0y g\u1eafn li\u1ec1n m\u1eadt thi\u1ebft v\u1edbi th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m k\u1ebft th\u00fac nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng, ch\u00fang th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng\u201d. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a, n\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t Iran ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u00e1ng 11, m\u1ee9c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u00e1ng 11, gi\u00e1 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u kh\u00f4ng h\u1ea1 th\u1ea5p tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u00e1ng 11 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao C\u1ed9ng H\u00f2a s\u1ebd m\u1ea5t quy\u1ec1n \u0111a s\u1ed1 trong qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i, \u00edt nh\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i H\u1ea1 Vi\u1ec7n. M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng l\u00fd do t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Lyndon B. Johnson kh\u00f4ng t\u00e1i \u1ee9ng c\u1eed t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng 1968 v\u00ec \u00f4ng ta kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1eed tri.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
D\u00f9 g\u00ec \u0111i n\u1eefa, k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u0169 kh\u00ed nguy\u00ean t\u1eed t\u1ea1i Iran kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n khi n\u00e0o ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o c\u00f2n t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i. Ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n \u0111\u00e3 di\u1ec5n ra v\u00e0 s\u1ebd di\u1ec5n ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n t\u1ea1i Iran?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p h\u1eefu hi\u1ec7u, c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e2u d\u00e0i kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang cho Iran m\u00e0 c\u1ea3 cho kh\u1ed1i \u1ea2 R\u1eadp \u00f4n h\u00f2a l\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c m\u00e0 h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm l\u1ea5y quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sau khi Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn Th\u1ee9 Hai ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t, th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 26 qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7, ng\u00e0y nay, theo Freedom House, con s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn 86 qu\u1ed1c gia. N\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ecf \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1eb9p \u0111\u00f3. Lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p Hoa K\u1ef3 quy \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y v\u00e0 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau “ch\u00ednh y\u1ebfu” v\u00e0 “c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n” c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i Hoa K\u1ef3. Qua k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch Marshall (The Marshall Plan), ch\u1ee7 thuy\u1ebft Truman, The Peace Corps, v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u t\u1ef7 dollar vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea1o h\u00e0ng n\u0103m cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 M\u1ef9, n\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t ch\u1ecdn l\u1ef1a kh\u00f4ng \u0111i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi quy\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i ch\u00ednh y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, th\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ecb \u00e1p b\u1ee9c (Foreign Assistance Act of 1961).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tranh ch\u1ea5p Iran ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft qua \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n M\u1ef9 c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u00e0 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Iran c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p h\u00f3a ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c phong tr\u00e0o, c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 c\u00f2n non tr\u1ebb nh\u01b0ng r\u1ea5t gan d\u1ea1, can \u0111\u1ea3m t\u1ea1i Iran. C\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd c\u0169ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan s\u00e1t, theo d\u00f5i b\u1edfi c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nguy\u00ean t\u1eed. N\u1ebfu c\u00f3 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0m h\u1eadu thu\u1eabn, c\u00e1c phong tr\u00e0o d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 tr\u1ebb Iran s\u1ebd nhanh ch\u00f3ng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1c tr\u1ef1c di\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o c\u0169ng s\u1ebd t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i nh\u01b0ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i \u0111a t\u00f4n gi\u00e1o. M\u1ecdi c\u1ef1c \u0111oan \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 tai h\u1ecda v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i b\u1ecb gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n. R\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia n\u01a1i H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o chi\u1ebfm t\u1edbi 90% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 Nam D\u01b0\u01a1ng, Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3, Jordan, Morroco v.v\u2026 nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn s\u1ed1ng h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 t\u00f4n tr\u1ecdng c\u00e1c t\u00f4n gi\u00e1o kh\u00e1c d\u00f9 s\u1ed1 d\u00e2n r\u1ea5t nh\u1ecf. Vua Mohammed V c\u1ee7a Morocco \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i giao n\u1ed9p ng\u01b0\u1eddi Do Th\u00e1i cho ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 Vichy (Ph\u00e1p thu\u1ed9c Qu\u1ed1c X\u00e3 \u0110\u1ee9c) khi tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 th\u1eb3ng th\u1eebng \u201cKh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi Do Th\u00e1i n\u00e0o \u1edf Morocco. Ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n Morocco.\u201d L\u00f2ng c\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u1ef1c v\u00e0 can \u0111\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ee9u s\u1ed1ng 250 ng\u00e0n ng\u01b0\u1eddi Do Th\u00e1i t\u1ea1i Morocco trong Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn Th\u1ee9 Hai. (Theo ZenouThe Moroccan King Who Saved the Jews, Smithsonian Magazine, March 8, 2024)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1o \u00f4n h\u00f2a v\u00e0 t\u1eebng l\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c gia th\u1ee9 hai trong kh\u1ed1i \u1ea2 R\u1eadp c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn Do Th\u00e1i n\u0103m 1950 ch\u1ec9 sau Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3 1949. Ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n v\u0103n h\u00f3a b\u1ea3y ng\u00e0n n\u0103m Iran m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u0103n b\u1ec7nh x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i nh\u1ea5t th\u1eddi. N\u1ebfu ch\u1eefa \u0111\u00fang, c\u0103n b\u1ec7nh c\u1ee7a Iran s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1eefa l\u00e0nh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hi\u1ec7n nay b\u00ean trong Iran c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00f3m ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n \u0111ang ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong c\u00e1c nghi\u1ec7p \u0111o\u00e0n, ph\u1ee5 n\u1eef v\u00e0 sinh vi\u00ean. H\u1ecd r\u1ea5t d\u1ea1n d\u00e0y, can \u0111\u1ea3m, ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn hy sinh v\u00e0 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u kinh nghi\u1ec7m \u0111\u1ea5u tranh nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c h\u00f3a. N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c phong tr\u00e0o, c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m, c\u00e1c di\u1ec5n \u0111\u00e0n \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f4ng khai, h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p d\u01b0\u1edbi s\u1ef1 b\u1ea3o tr\u1ee3 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh s\u1ebd gia t\u0103ng theo c\u1ea5p s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n nhanh ch\u00f3ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
M\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i \u0111\u00fang s\u1ebd gi\u00fap Iran thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1eadn c\u0103n b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch sai s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u0111ang ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ti\u1ebfn s\u0129 D\u01b0\u01a1ng Ki\u1ebfn L\u1ee3i (Jianli Yang), m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng l\u00e3nh t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a phong tr\u00e0o Thi\u00ean An M\u00f4n v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Harvard, trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft \u201cHow Iran\u2019s Democracy Movement Can Win: Reflections From a Tiananmen Survivor \u201c \u0111\u0103ng tr\u00ean The Diplomat ng\u00e0y 13 th\u00e1ng 1, 2026 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c:\u201cVi\u1ec7c \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 phong tr\u00e0o d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a Iran ph\u1ea3i t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c gi\u00fap ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n Iran \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef1 do v\u00e0 quy\u1ec1n t\u1ef1 qu\u1ea3n, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ee3i \u00edch kinh t\u1ebf n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i. N\u1ebfu d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i \u00edch b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd b\u1ecb coi l\u00e0 thi\u1ebfu l\u00f2ng y\u00eau n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 s\u1ebd th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i. Kh\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t phong tr\u00e0o d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng n\u1ebfu l\u00e0m m\u1ea5t \u0111i l\u00f2ng t\u1ef1 tr\u1ecdng d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n m\u00ecnh.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch hay k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn \u0111\u1ec1u r\u1ea5t d\u1ec5, th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 di\u1ec5n ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hay kh\u00f4ng m\u1edbi l\u00e0 kh\u00f3. Th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o s\u1ed1ng b\u1eb1ng l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u01b0 Thomas Jefferson v\u1edbi Tuy\u00ean Ng\u00f4n \u0110\u1ed9c L\u1eadp (Declaration of Independence), Abraham Lincoln v\u1edbi Tuy\u00ean ng\u00f4n Gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng [N\u00f4 L\u1ec7] (Mancipation Proclamation), Franklin D. Roosevelt v\u1edbi Hi\u1ebfn ch\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0110\u1ea1i T\u00e2y D\u01b0\u01a1ng (The Atlantic Charter) v.v\u2026 \u0111\u00e3 qua r\u1ed3i. Ng\u00e0y nay, th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi b\u1ecb ph\u00e2n c\u1ef1c kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ec9 v\u00ec \u00fd th\u1ee9c h\u1ec7 m\u00e0 c\u00f2n do l\u00f2ng tham c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3i v\u00e0 quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c. Nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i \u0111ang c\u1ea5u k\u1ebft nhau th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t C\u00f4ng ty Chuy\u00ean Quy\u1ec1n (Autocracy, Inc.) , d\u00f9ng ch\u1eef c\u1ee7a s\u1eed gia Anne Applebaum, \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap nhau duy tr\u00ec quy\u1ec1n cai tr\u1ecb. H\u1ecd khai th\u00e1c t\u00e2m l\u00fd s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i, ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c n\u00f4ng c\u1ea1n v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh x\u1eed b\u1eb1ng c\u1ea3m t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea1i \u0111a s\u1ed1 qu\u1ea7n ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u00fac tho\u00e1i tr\u00e0o nh\u01b0ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i. D\u00f2ng v\u0103n minh nh\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i v\u1eabn ch\u1ea3y. Cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng d\u1ef1ng l\u00ean m\u1ed9t ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thay \u0111\u1ed5i b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng kh\u00e1c, trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p Iran l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7. N\u1ebfu ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n Iran c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t kh\u00f4ng gian, c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n l\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh, c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 s\u1ebd di\u1ec5n ra b\u1edfi v\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1eb9p nh\u1ea5t cho t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tr\u1ea7n Trung \u0110\u1ea1o<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
C\u00e1c k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u0169 kh\u00ed nguy\u00ean t\u1eed c\u1ee7a Iran kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111em ra th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn khi n\u00e0o<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6406,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-van"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6405"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6405\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6413,"href":"https:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6405\/revisions\/6413"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6406"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}